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Nate Diaz (10-4) vs. Melvin Guillard (22-7-2, 1NC)
Scenario: Both Diaz and Guillard—despite his three fight winning streak—need this win to stay relevant in a stacked UFC 155lb division. Guillard is short, stocky, and powerful, a combination Diaz has struggled with in the past against Joe Stevenson (L) and Manny Gamburyan (W). Diaz’s saving grace in this fight is going to be the relative insecurity of his opponent once the fight hits the ground. Guillard has been submitted in six of his seven professional losses, and several of them have occurred inside the first round. That does not bode well against someone as rangy and gifted on the ground as the younger Diaz.
Prediction: Look for a rejuvenated Nate Diaz to come out smart and aggressive in this one. He won’t shy away from exchanging with Guillard, but this fight will be his to win once it hits the mat. Diaz should collect some much-needed confidence against a powerful wrestler if he remembers to fight for a finish, as he has never won a unanimous decision. Diaz by Submission (Triangle Choke, Round 1).
Gray Maynard (7-0, 1NC) vs. Roger Huerta (20-2-1, 1NC)
Scenario: In what many hardcore fans consider to be the unofficial main event of UFN 19, Xtreme Couture wrestling standout Gray Maynard will look to make a serious case for a shot at the lightweight title by sending the popular Roger Huerta packing with a dominating loss, as this is the last fight on “El Matador’s” UFC contract. Almost every aspect of the fight favors Maynard, although Huerta has shown in the past that while he was overrated by a majority of his fans, he was severely underrated by many of his more outspoken critics. The long layoff Huerta is coming off of, coupled with his questionable will to remain with the world’s top MMA promotion—or even fighting as a profession—should spell the difference in the end, as Maynard has remained busy against top competition throughout his UFC career.
Prediction: Huerta will have his moments, as he always does, but in the end the suffocating top game and overall pace of Maynard will not be denied, as he cruises to an unquestioned Unanimous Decision that may be booed by many of the fans in attendance. It will truly be an upset if Huerta comes away with the W here, as he has not shown an ability to do more than avoid serious damage from powerful wrestlers in the past.
Carlos Condit (23-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4)
Scenario: After rattling off eight straight wins since a 2006 submission loss to Pat Healy, former WEC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit suffered a disappointing Split Decision loss to welterweight contender Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut last April. After Chris Lytle was forced out of the slot to face Condit, he was replaced by underrated prospect Jake Ellenberger on the main card of the Spike TV broadcast. While Condit likes the ground game, Ellenberger has won the majority of his fights by knockout, and he is currently on a four fight-winning streak. Look for this one to be more competitive than the announcers will be letting on.
Prediction: Carlos Condit overcomes some early adversity to steal the first round before overwhelming Ellenberger and putting him out with a referee stoppage midway into the second round.
Nate Quarry (11-3) vs. Tim Credeur (12-2)
Scenario: Starting off the Spike TV televised broadcast on Sept. 16 will be a middleweight match up between two talented, albeit unheralded mid-level contenders. After being served up as a sacrificial lamb to the ultra talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Demian Maia last November, Nate Quarry rebounded in dominating—and surprising—fashion with a first round TKO of highly regarded middleweight Jason MacDonald at UFC 97 in April. Credeur may not have gotten a chance to make a name for himself on the seventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, but he has since earned an impressive 3-0 mark in the UFC against decent opposition. This one should be much closer than Quarry’s highlight reel would suggest.
Prediction: In what seems like an entirely different era, Nate Quarry was once the top contender to the UFC’s middleweight title, until he was defeated soundly in the first round by one of the most brutal one-punch knockouts in MMA history by former champion Rich Franklin. Credeur will make this one exciting, dodging the majority of Quarry’s hardest shots throughout the first round before getting clipped in the second, spelling the end of his unbeaten UFC run.
- Steve Cantwell (7-2) def. Brian Stann (6-2) by TKO in Round 1
- Chris Wilson (14-5, 1NC) def. Mike Pyle (19-6-1) by Submission (RNC, Round 1)
- Dan Miller (11-2, 1NC) def. C.B. Dollaway (8-2) by Submission (Guillotine, Round 2)
- Sam Stout (14-5-1) def. Philipe Nover (6-2-1) by Unanimous Decision
- Jeremy Stephens (15-5) def. Justin Buchholz (8-3) by KO in Round 2)
- Brock Larson (26-2) def. Mike Pierce (8-1) by Submission (RNC, Round 1)
- Ryan Jensen (13-5) def. Steve Steinbeiss (4-2) by Submission (Triangle Choke, Round 3)
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